Friday, 17 November 2017

Plain packaging for alcohol (again)

The week's Lancet has an editorial about alcohol. It doesn't even bother to acknowledge the temperance lobby's victory in the minimum pricing court case. They are already moving on to the 'next logical step'.

Here are the closing sentences...

There is no excuse to ignore regulatory interventions for access, advertisements, and unit cost that are shown to reduce alcohol consumption. Like tobacco, the longer the delay in effective control, the more severe future interventions for alcohol will need to be. It is not unimaginable that bottles of Château Mouton Rothschild, which once bore the artwork of Salvador Dali and Pablo Picasso, might one day be required to have plain packaging and images of oesophageal cancer or a cirrhotic liver.

It only seems like yesterday when those of us who predicted this slippery slope were portrayed as paranoid libertarians who had fallen for a deceptive tobacco industry argument.

Freedom is indivisible and killjoys never sleep.

Europuppets defunded

A few years ago I wrote a report called Europuppets about the EU's exceptional largesse towards 'civil society' organisations of which it approves. Quite a few of them are in the business of punishing consumers under the pretext of 'public health', including the European Public Health Alliance (EPHA).

Over the years, EPHA has lobbied for minimum pricing, taxes on food and the Tobacco Products Directive, so I was delighted to hear that the European Commission is going to stop funding it next year.

In late October 2017, EPHA was informed that it had not been selected to receive an operating grant from the European Commission’s Health Programme, as from January 2018.

Such an occurrence has always been a possibility and the EPHA Board has undertaken contingency planning for several years. While this has some immediate implications for the organisation, the board and secretariat team are implementing plans to ensure EPHA’s long-term sustainability.

EU funding accounts for two-thirds of their income so hopefully their long-term sustainability is out of the question, unless Pharma steps in.

And the good news doesn't end there. The European Network for Smoking and Tobacco Prevention (ENSP) has been unsuccessful in applying for EU cash and the neo-prohibitionists at Eurocare have been defunded. The former relied on EU taxpayers for more than half of its budget so hopefully it will wither and die before it can bring about its 'tobacco endgame strategy'.

Not a bad start. The full list of unsuccessful grant applications can be read here. I don't recognise them all by the abbreviations so if you spot any gems, let me know in the comments.

Have a great weekend!

Thursday, 16 November 2017

Looking forward to minimum pricing

Now that the SNP are free to introduce minimum pricing, it's worth looking at what we're supposed to expect.

Back in 2009, when minimum pricing became a live issue, the Sheffield modellers predicted that a minimum price (of 40p in those days) would result in a drop in alcohol consumption of 2.7 per cent and a decline in alcohol-related deaths of 40 in the first year, rising to 210 per annum after ten years.

Given the 'public health' lobby's absolute obsession with this policy in the years since, we must assume that they regarded these as game-changing numbers. Imagine if alcohol consumption fell by 2.7 per cent! What a victory for health that would be.

We don't need to imagine because consumption fell by much more than that after 2009 without any notable policy change. In 2007, Scots were drinking 11.8 litres of alcohol a year. By 2016, this had fallen to 10.5 litres. This is a drop of 11 per cent - four times as great as the decline Sheffield said would occur if minimum pricing was introduced.

You probably haven't much about this, but if minimum pricing had been introduced in 2009 you would have never heard the end of it. Not only did alcohol consumption fall by 11 per cent, but the alcohol-related mortality rate fell from 34.6 per 100,000 to 30.0 per 100,000 for men and from 16.7 per 100,000 to 9.0 per 100,000 for women. This is a drop of 13% and 46% respectively.

It is interesting to see the decline in both drinking and alcohol-related deaths in Scotland in recent years and yet I do not see much interest in it from the denizens of 'public health', presumably because they can't take credit for it. 

Here are the alcohol-related deaths for men and women. Scotland is the top (light blue) line.

It's worth noting that the UK as a whole has seen a decline alcohol consumption of around 18 per cent since 2004 and yet Scotland is the only part of it to have seen a significant fall in alcohol-related deaths. This implies that the fall in alcohol consumption in Scotland has been driven by heavy drinkers consuming less whereas the fall in England, Wales and Northern Ireland has been driven by moderate drinkers consuming less and more people becoming teetotal.

Looking at the actual number of deaths below, you can see that mortality increased sharply between 1993 and 2003 before falling by about 20 per cent. It has not followed drinking trends perfectly, however. Note that there was a relatively large number of deaths in 2016 despite per capita consumption being at a twenty year low.

The latest Sheffield predictions for Scotland predict that a 50p unit price will reduce consumption by 3.5% and will reduce the number of deaths by 58 in the first year and by 102 per annum after ten years. This is what the SNP and its allies have been fighting for all this time. This is the promised land.

But despite all the wild celebrations from the neo-temperance lobby yesterday, these projected outcomes are so trivial that they would get lost in the noise of the data. If there is a 3 or 4 per cent downturn in per capita consumption in the first year of minimum pricing, you could plausibly attribute it to minimum pricing, but (a) it could just as easily be part of the longer term decline, and (b) so what?

The aim of the policy is to reduce alcohol-related deaths, but if minimum pricing did 'save' 58 lives, it would be impossible to tell from looking at the numbers because they fluctuate by more than that on a regular basis. Between 2015 and 2016, for example, they rose by 115 for no obvious reason. Between 2011 and 2012 they fell by 167.

Regardless of whether the figures rise, fall or stay the same over the next few years, it is inevitable that a regression model will be published - probably by the monopoly providers at Sheffield University - claiming that there were fewer deaths than there would have been in the absence of the policy. Such a regression model will be politically driven rubbish, but even if someone made a serious attempt to create a regression model, it would be impossible because they would not be able to project future trends. Why? Because they don't know the reason for the recent trend.

The stark reality is that the projected impact of minimum pricing, exaggerated though it almost certainly is, amounts to a rounding error too small to be seen with the naked eye. Even if it does everything its advocates claim it will, the impact of this supposedly world-leading policy will be too small to measure. The policy of doing nothing and selling alcohol at 'pocket money prices' in the last decade seems to have been vastly more successful than the most optimistic projections of Sheffield's activist-academics. 

Wednesday, 15 November 2017

Minimum pricing can now happen before Brexit

The UK Supreme Court has said that minimum pricing is legal under the ridiculous carve out that says that free trade doesn't matter if a policy is designed to protect ‘health and life’, ’public morality’, ‘public policy’ and ‘public security’ (ie. anything). The last reason to stay in the EU has disappeared.

It doesn't really matter for the UK because we're leaving but it's a shame for other EU countries. Now all we can do is see what happens. The clowns at Sheffield University have got the commission to evaluate the policy (quelle surprise) and they will obviously say that it's been a terrific success, but some serious people should be also be able to get hold of the data.

In the meantime, I've written a quick article for Spectator Health. Do have read of it.

Monday, 13 November 2017

#AlcoholAwarenessWeek

Alcohol Awareness Week has returned for another year. It is a scheme dreamt up by the likes of Alcohol Concern to lobby for minimum pricing, tax rises and advertising bans while purporting to educate the public about drinking.

Thanks to the myriad lies of the neo-temperance movement, there is certainly room for education. Here are ten things that people deserve to know for starters...

1. The theory that underpins the neo-temperance lobby's 'whole population' approach is a demonstrably false and self-serving delusion.

2. The lowering of the drinking guidelines in the UK last year was orchestrated by a bunch of anti-alcohol zealots and relied on a model which was changed at the eleventh hour when the original model failed to support the change.

3. Moderate drinkers live longer than teetotallers, on average.

4. And that is not because of the 'sick quitter' effect.

5. Drinkers in Britain pay 40 per cent of all the alcohol duty collected in the EU.

6. Alcohol duty revenues in Britain far exceeds the costs drinking imposes on state services. Drinkers subsidise teetotallers to the tune of £8 billion a year.

7. Britain has never been a particularly heavy drinking country by the standards of other developed nations.



8. The claim that minimum pricing has worked in Canada is based entirely on one man's junk science.

9. Since 2004, per capita consumption of alcohol in the UK has fallen at its fastest rate since the 1930s and is now at the same level as in 1980.

10. Public Health England claimed last year that Britons are drinking twice as much as they were in 1980. This is because Public Health England doesn't know what it's talking about.

Sunday, 12 November 2017

Plain packaging - a gift to the black market


 From Retail Express...

The first counterfeit plain packs of tobacco in the UK have been uncovered by Retail Express and trading standards departments.

Following a tip-off, Retail Express was sold a plain pack counterfeit of a premium brand by a London newsagent for £10.50. The retailer took a legitimate pack out of the gantry and swapped it out with a fake pack, while processing the card transaction.

Doug Love, Hammersmith and Fulham Trading Standards officer warned: “The quality of the counterfeits is so good, unless you know what you are looking for it is incredibly difficult to spot.”

Evidence suggests the quality and prices of the plain pack counterfeits is creating a two-tier illicit trade, with cheap smuggled and counterfeit non-plain packs, and the new plain format illicit packs often passed through at RRP.

The article mentions that the first counterfeit plain packs were uncovered by Trading Standards in July, a mere two months after the new regulations came into full effect. They were found in the north-west and are now 'heading south'. 

If organised criminals want their products on the shop shelves, they've got to be in plain packs otherwise nobody's going to buy them at full price. The great thing about plain packaging - from their perspective - is that they only need to counterfeit one pack. After that, they just need to change the name on the front (all brand names have to be displayed in the same simple font by law) and they've got a full range of brands to sell. Happy days!

Another big 'public health' win. Well done to everybody involved.

Friday, 10 November 2017

Killjoys - out now

 
I'm delighted to announce the publication of my new book, Killjoys: A Critique of Paternalism. You can download the PDF for free. Hard copies and Kindle will be available from Amazon soon. If you want it sooner the IEA are sending out free copies to anyone who donates £10 or more this month (UK and Ireland only). Incidentally, we were going to send out free Killjoy lighters out as well but it turns out that there's a law against sending lighters in the post. I rest my case.

So what's it about? You can probably work it out from the title. It's about liberty and the limits of government intervention. I start with John Stuart Mill and the mainstream economists and move on to nudge theory, coercive paternalism and 'public health' paternalism. I look at the moral and economic arguments used by the 'public health' lobby to justify interfering in people's private lives and then look at the consequences of their interventions. Finally, I provide some suggestions about how a government that respected individual liberty would regulate risky lifestyle products and behaviours.

I've written a blog post about it for the IEA and Dick Puddlecote has kindly written a rapid response after picking up the book at the launch party on Wednesday night.

Download Killjoys.